Dim Amor

Security sources reported to the ODATV network that Turkey will assist Syria's new government and establish air, land, and naval bases in Syria to fight ISIS. This represents a dramatic move that Israel is trying to avoid at all costs, while simultaneously working vigorously to prevent significant Turkish entrenchment on its northern borders.

International efforts to rehabilitate Syria are in full swing and include several actors with competing interests in the region. Syria appears to be nearing the end of its struggle against the PKK terrorist organization, which does not recognize the country's new government, while a new geopolitical reality is taking shape centered on the question of who will control Syrian territory and what the character of the new regime will be.

The ODATV network reports on various processes occurring in Syria, according to security sources in the country. According to the reports, Turkey will assist Syria's new government in establishing its security organizations and army. As part of this, Turkish forces will establish air, land, and naval bases in Syria under the claim of fighting the ISIS terrorist organization – a step that raises deep concern among Israel's security establishment.

Security sources noted that the Five-Party mechanism, established as part of the fight against ISIS and including Turkey and regional countries, convenes from time to time, and that all possible contributions will be made to ensure security and stability in Syria. They also noted that the meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump in the coming days will be an important and critical meeting, noting that this meeting will lead to the resolution of many issues related to Syria.

Security sources, who emphasized that the US will withdraw from Syria but leave a symbolic base, said: "Trump no longer thinks that US presence in the Middle East will be beneficial. He is well aware of Turkey's dominance among regional countries. He doesn't want America to get into trouble in the future. As a country, we always say that regional problems should be solved by regional countries and that other parties should not be involved".

These statements indicate a fundamental shift in American policy in the Middle East and open the door to increased Turkish influence in the region. The planned American withdrawal creates a strategic vacuum that Turkey is determined to fill, exploiting Russian weakness following the war in Ukraine and the fall of its ally, the Assad regime.

According to publications, Syria's new government has three main goals: to improve the country's legitimacy and recognition in the international arena, to revive the economy, and to preserve its territorial integrity and federal structure. Scenarios aimed at dividing the country are not being considered, but in practice, growing Turkish control over Syrian territory could lead to a situation of close dependence on Ankara's policies.

This ODATV report comes against the backdrop of reports of a hidden struggle between Israel and Turkey regarding Syria's character. Turkey, as mentioned, claims it is establishing bases throughout the country to help al-Julani's new regime fight ISIS, but Israel sees this as an attempt to take control of Syria and turn it into its satellite. The new security reality presents Israel with complex challenges it has not yet faced.

About two months ago, it was published that the Air Force acted to thwart an immediate attempt by the Turkish army to gain a foothold in Syria with significant forces from Turkish Air Force squadrons. During a lightning operation, led by Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar, the force operated and bombed two airfields in recent days that served the Syrian army during Bashar al-Assad's regime.

These are the Tadmor airfield and the T4 airfield. In carpet bombing, the Air Force destroyed both airfields. No structure remained standing. They bombed planes, radar systems, control towers, parking areas, all runways, and all buildings – the warehouses simply destroyed both airfields, said a military source. The Israeli move was designed to prevent the Turks from gaining strategic air reinforcement points that would allow them to deploy significant forces in Syria.

The attack came against the backdrop of Israel's declaration that it has two main conditions regarding Syria: first, complete demilitarization of the country's south of weapons so as not to threaten Israel, and second, freedom of air movement over Lebanon and Syria. Israel conducted contacts with the Turks regarding the country's future where the Israeli government's red lines were clarified, but so far it appears the sides have not reached significant understandings.

The growing tension between Israel and Turkey reflects a broader struggle for hegemony in the region. Turkey is considered a regional power politically, economically, and militarily, and a direct confrontation with it is expected to pose a very significant challenge for Israel. In recent years, Turkey has strengthened its position as a military power while developing a significant domestic defense industry. In 2023, Turkey's weapons exports totaled about $5.5 billion, about half of Israeli exports.

The Turkish army is considered the largest among the armies around the eastern Mediterranean, and Ankara has gained combat experience in recent years in Syria, Libya, and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkish military capabilities have developed significantly, including development of advanced unmanned aerial systems, air defense systems, and electronic warfare technologies.

Sources in Turkey claim that the bases will be established on the border with Israel and will provide protection for Syria – if, for example, the Israeli Air Force enters Syrian territory, Turkey promises to attack, but these are only sources heard in the media and are not official. However, these unofficial threats indicate the direction of the wind among the Turkish establishment and the determination to become a dominant player in Syria.

In this situation, Israel prefers Russia in Syria because Russia does not want to conquer Syria or stay in Syria forever, but Turkey sees Syria as its territory and therefore when it is here it will allow doing anything. The Russians, despite their complex relations with Israel, have presented relative stability for years and willingness to coordinate on certain security issues. The Turks, in contrast, are perceived as a more greedy factor whose goal is to achieve complete control over Syrian territory.

Turkey's army is very strong, and Israel's is also strong, but it's preferable that there be no conflict because damage to Israel from Turkey and Syria would be difficult, and Turkey might lose its place in NATO, but sometimes there's a feeling that Turkey is not afraid to lose its place in NATO. The new security reality presents Israel with difficult dilemmas: on one hand, the need to preserve its vital security interests in Syria, and on the other hand, the desire to avoid a direct confrontation with a regional power like Turkey.

The gap between forces is particularly striking when examining quantitative data: the Turkish army has about 775,000 active soldiers and about 380,000 reserve forces, while Israel has about 170,000 active soldiers and about 445,000 reserve forces. In terms of equipment, Turkey has about 3,200 tanks compared to about 1,370 for Israel, and about 1,067 fighter jets compared to about 241 for Israel. However, Israel has a significant technological advantage and higher training level of its forces.

The struggle over Syria also reflects broader changes in the international system. The US withdrawal from the Middle East, Russian weakness, and the rise of regional powers like Turkey are creating a new geopolitical map. In this context, Israel is forced to adapt to a reality where regional players are becoming stronger and more independent in their actions.

The establishment of Turkish bases in Syria will fundamentally change the military balance in the region. A permanent Turkish presence in Syria will allow Ankara to project military power directly on the Israeli border, create close ties with terrorist organizations in Lebanon, and limit Israeli freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon. Simultaneously, the Turkish presence may strengthen the resources and capabilities of various terrorist organizations in the region.

For Israel, the situation presents new operational and strategic challenges. Operationally, it will be more difficult to operate in Syria against Iranian or Lebanese targets when there is significant Turkish presence. Strategically, Israel will be forced to deal with a new threat on its northern borders, considering that Turkey is a NATO member with advanced military capabilities.

The Turkish move in Syria also connects to the broader context of Turkish foreign policy under President Erdogan. Turkey aspires to restore its status as a leading regional power, exploiting the vacuum created by the weakness of traditional players like Iran and Russia. Establishing bases in Syria is part of a broader trend of expanding Turkish influence in the region, which has included activity in Libya, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea in recent years.

Despite Israeli opposition, Turkey appears determined to continue with its plans. The assistance Turkey provides to Syria's new government, including training security and military forces, creates mutual dependence that makes it difficult to remove Turkish presence from the country. Simultaneously, the international legitimacy Turkey receives for its fight against ISIS allows it to justify its military presence in Syria.

The establishment of Turkish bases in Syria also raises questions about the future of peace agreements in the Middle East. A hostile Turkish presence on the border with Israel could undermine regional stability and complicate peace efforts with additional Arab countries. Simultaneously, this could strengthen the Iranian-Turkish resistance axis against Israel and against Western involvement in the region.

Israeli policy toward Syria will be forced to update according to the new reality. Instead of the ability to operate with relative freedom in Syrian territory, Israel will need to carefully consider every action, taking into account possible Turkish response. The situation requires development of new intelligence and operational capabilities, alongside building renewed diplomatic relations with additional regional players.

For Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the establishment of Turkish bases in Syria is also a concern. They see Turkey as a competitor for regional hegemony, and significant Turkish presence in Syria could strengthen Ankara's position in the struggle for regional influence. The situation could lead to multiple alliances and more complex confrontation for all relevant players.

Ultimately, the Turkish move in Syria represents a fundamental change in the Middle East power map. This is a step that could change not only Israel's security situation but the entire regional system. The question is whether Israel will succeed in dealing with the new challenge while preserving its security interests, or whether the new reality will force dramatic changes in its security strategy. The answer to this question will affect not only the future of Israel-Turkey relations but the stability of the entire region.

Photo: AP