Dim Amor

Basel, Switzerland – On the eve of the grand finale of Eurovision 2025, which will take place tomorrow (Saturday) in Basel, the tension between the leading countries reaches its peak. The battle for victory is being waged between Israel, Armenia, Czechia, Ireland, and Estonia, with the question of political influence on the results hovering in the background.

Polls and betting odds place Israel, represented by Yuval Rafael with "New Day Will Rise", in first place in audience voting, with qualification chances of 94% according to betting agencies. However, as happened in previous years, everything depends on the "professional" judges, who have often preferred political considerations over genuine talent.

Yuval Rafael, a survivor of the Hamas attack from October 2023, brings a powerful ballad in three languages – English, French, and Hebrew – to the stage. Her performance has evoked mixed reactions across Europe, with political protests on one side and enthusiastic support on the other. Despite the controversy, the wider audience continues to vote for her in large numbers.

Armenia is represented by Parg with "Survivor", a song with dramatic elements whose chances of making the finals stand at only 42%, placing the country on the borderline of qualification. Ireland, represented by Amy with "Laika Party", comes with an upbeat pop song and a colorful stage performance. With qualification chances of 39%, Ireland is in an insecure position. Reactions to the song were mixed – some viewers found it enjoyable and catchy, while others struggled to connect with it.

For its part, Estonia is represented by Tommy Cash with "Espresso Macchiato", an electro-swing song in Estonian and Italian. Cash, an eccentric artist with a post-Soviet style, brings a performance with exceptional visual elements to the stage. His winning chances stand at about 2% according to the betting odds, placing Estonia in the second tier of favorites.

Czechia, represented by Adonx with "Blood and Glitter", comes with a dramatic ballad with gothic influences. Adonx, a singer born in Slovakia, focuses on dark aesthetics and showcases his powerful voice. Czechia's winning chances stand at only about 1%, placing it at the bottom of the table.

Behind the scenes of the competition, the discussion about the influence of politics in Eurovision is growing. Many times in the past, Israel has led in audience voting, but "professional" judges awarded points to other countries due to political considerations rather than in accordance with the real talent displayed on stage. "Eurovision is a political competition and not one of talent – it hasn't been about talent for a long time", many critics claim.

If we look at the expected results according to the "professional" judges, Israel is expected to reach fifth place, a result considered excellent considering the political situation. Above it in the table are Sweden with KAJ and his song "Bara Bada Bastu" (39% chance of winning), Austria with JJ and "Wasted Love" (23%), the Netherlands with Claude Kmbm and "C'est la Vie" (8%), and France with Louane (11%).

The Swedish song "Bara Bada Bastu" is a humorous song in the pop-schlager style, performed in the Voroa dialect, with an original and vibrant stage performance. Austria, on the other hand, brings a powerful ballad combining pop and opera, with an impressive vocal performance that has received much praise.

The Netherlands competes with an emotional multilingual song with soul influences, delivered in a touching performance, while France presents a traditional ballad in French, dedicated to the mother and daughter of singer Louane, with an emotional performance that captured the hearts of the judges.

The tension ahead of tomorrow's final is strongly felt in the hall in Basel. Organizers expect a viewership of over 200 million people worldwide, who will follow the big decision. The central question occupying everyone is whether this time the audience vote will overcome the judges' considerations and allow Israel to win first place.

The Eurovision organizers, for their part, emphasized the importance of maintaining a non-political character for the competition. Nevertheless, it is difficult to ignore the political tension that hovers over the event. Outside the hall, demonstrations were held both for and against Israel's participation, and the discourse on social networks has become particularly stormy. The Swiss police have increased security around the event, and promised to maintain order and the safety of all participants.

An in-depth analysis of voting patterns in recent years shows that there is often a significant gap between audience preferences and judges' scores. Last year, for example, Israel enjoyed great success in audience voting but received relatively low scores from the judges, which prevented it from reaching the top positions.

Eurovision experts explain that political considerations play a significant role in judges' voting, while the audience tends to vote more according to musical preferences.

Yuval Rafael's performance attracts much interest also because of its musical quality. Yuval's personal connection to the song, as a survivor of the terrorist attack in October 2023, adds another dimension to her performance. Forecasts for tomorrow's final point to a particularly close battle. If we combine audience votes with judges' scores, Israel might certainly reach first place, but everything depends on the weight given to each of the components.

While Sweden enjoys strong support from the judges thanks to the original and colorful performance, and Austria impresses with the spectacular vocal performance, Israel combines musical power with a universal message, which may bring it the support needed to win.

Ireland, with "Laika Party", brings energy and vitality to the competition, but seems to lack the power and emotional depth to compete for the top positions. Czechia and Estonia, despite the uniqueness and authenticity of their performances, are at a disadvantage in the polls, although surprises are always possible at Eurovision.

Tomorrow's grand final is expected to be one of the most fascinating in recent years, with a diverse mix of musical styles, personal messages, and of course, the politics that is always present behind the scenes. Will Yuval Rafael bring Israel an emotional victory? Will one of the other countries surprise? The answers will be given tomorrow, on the Eurovision stage in Basel.

The Israeli delegation continues with its final rehearsals and preparations for this sublime event.

As the hour of decision approaches, all eyes are on Basel. Beyond the identity of the winner, the essential question is whether Eurovision 2025 will succeed in rising above political disputes and celebrating the art of music as the founders of this cultural enterprise originally aspired. The answer to this will be given tomorrow evening, when the spotlights are directed at the Eurovision stage in Basel, Swiss Confederation.

Graphics: Maakav