The Iranian threat to Israel has become more real, serious, frightening, and dangerous than ever before. The security reality places Israel before a significant decision: a strike on Iran seems inevitable, but before that, Israel must carry out one critical action – returning the hostages from Gaza.

From a moral standpoint, Israel cannot attack Iran as long as the hostages have not been released from captivity in Gaza. The current IDF activity in the Strip is merely the prelude to the larger campaign that is forming against the Iranian threat.

There is a well-known saying that every fighter in the IDF infantry brigades knows: "What doesn't work with force works with more force". The operation in Gaza is essentially the trailer for the major operation that Israel is preparing for. The current activity of divisions 143, 36, and 252 is intended to increase pressure on Gaza residents, who will in turn increase pressure on Hamas to agree to the American proposal – the release of 11 living hostages and 16 deceased hostages.

The military activity in Gaza is now accompanied by heavy fire from the air, from the navy, and from maneuvering forces. The IDF is operating aggressively with the understanding that there are no living or dead hostages in the areas where it operates. The heavy force being applied is also meant to clarify to Hamas what will happen when the IDF moves to a much more intensified phase.

Iranian President Pezeshkian threatened that Iran is in a state of "total war with the enemy (Israel)" and called for focusing on preparations for this instead of internal accusations. He noted that the enemy is tightening the siege and sanctions, but Iran has plans to deal with this situation.

The question of striking Iran is just around the corner. This is the existential issue that threatens the state of Israel. The time window for striking Iran is limited, and it's unclear if the Americans will carry out the move themselves. This is Israel's top priority, but if the US does not act and leaves the arena to the IDF, Israel will need significant American backing. Not just in armaments and resources, but in an explicit clarification from the American government that it is providing support to Israel through aircraft carriers, squadrons at airfields in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf.

A strike on Iran could lead to a military operation that would last many weeks and even several months. This situation requires Israel to first close the issue of the hostages. Israel cannot, morally, publicly, and to some extent militarily, initiate an action against Iran when the issue of hostages in Gaza is still open.

In the coming days, pressure on Hamas in Gaza is expected to intensify: more air force bombings, massive navy strikes along the entire Gaza coastline, and ground activity accompanied by heavy fire in various areas of the Strip. Now the military saying "what doesn't work with force works with more force" is being put to the test in the reality of Gaza.

At the same time, international voices are heard in the background. Russia responded to US President Donald Trump's threats with a stern statement: "An attack on Iran is illegal, it will have devastating consequences". Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declared that "the use of military force against Iran would be illegal and unacceptable", following Trump's threats to attack the country if it does not sign a nuclear agreement. "Bombing nuclear facilities would have catastrophic consequences for the entire world", Zakharova added.

The complex security reality places Israel before a critical dilemma: on one hand, the escalating Iranian nuclear threat that demands an urgent response, and on the other hand – the moral commitment to return the hostages. The intensive fighting in Gaza these days is essentially an indicator of the military power that Israel is prepared to employ, and an attempt to resolve the hostage issue as quickly as possible in order to focus on dealing with the larger strategic threat.

As developments indicate, IDF activity in Gaza these days constitutes only the prelude to a much broader and more significant campaign. As time progresses, Israel increases the pressure in Gaza with the aim of achieving the release of hostages as soon as possible, and clearing the way for a comprehensive response to the Iranian threat – the threat that is now defined as more real, serious, frightening, and dangerous than ever before.

Photo: Israel Aerospace Industries, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Facebook page, and AP News Agency