Dim Amor

The military campaign between Iran and Israel, which concluded after 12 days of fighting, has left dramatic data indicating a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. Summary figures reveal that Iran lost approximately half of its ballistic missile arsenal and most of its air defense capabilities, while Israel sustained heavy strikes on the home front but maintained absolute air superiority.

Iran launched approximately 500-550 ballistic missiles toward the Israeli home front during the campaign, alongside more than a thousand drones. The Iranian barrage exacted a heavy toll: 28 Israeli fatalities—27 civilians and one IDF soldier—and hundreds of wounded. Hundreds of Israeli families were left homeless following direct hits on their homes, and dozens of destruction sites were discovered across the home front. Among the targets hit were strategic sites such as fuel facilities in Haifa and the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot.

Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted 80-90 percent of the ballistic missiles fired, with only 50-60 missiles striking the home front. Eight of the missiles that hit caused casualties. Drone interception capabilities showed even more impressive results—99.99 percent successful interceptions, with only one drone hitting Beit Shean without casualties. Iran managed to shoot down two Israeli drones using its defense systems.

The Israeli response was devastating. The Israeli Air Force destroyed approximately 800-1,000 ballistic missiles before they were launched and struck 65 percent of missile launchers. According to intelligence assessments, Iran has only about 1,000-1,500 missiles remaining from its original arsenal—less than half the missile power it had built over years. Iranian firing capabilities were pushed back from the west of the country to its center and east, with all western missile units rendered inoperative.

In the air defense domain, Israel achieved absolute superiority. More than 80 percent of Iranian air defense capabilities were destroyed, including more than 80 surface-to-air missile batteries. Contrary to initial assessments, no manned Israeli aircraft was shot down over Iran, and no pilot required rescue.

The heaviest blow to Iran was to its nuclear program. Israel attacked the three main nuclear facilities—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—and dozens of other related facilities, including the nuclear headquarters in Tehran and centrifuge production facilities. Intelligence assessments indicate significant damage to all facilities, though the extent of damage is still being assessed. Simultaneously, 15 senior Iranian nuclear scientists were eliminated, including leaders of the "weapons group".

The strike against Iran's military elite was unprecedented. Four senior military branch commanders were eliminated: the Revolutionary Guards commander, the armed forces commander, the emergency headquarters commander and his deputy. Also eliminated were the aerospace commander and the entire air force leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, two senior Quds Force officials, and hundreds of Basij and Revolutionary Guards personnel in a series of strikes on their headquarters in Tehran.

The political-strategic dimension of the campaign is no less important. The United States joined not only in defending Israel but also in the offensive effort, particularly in striking the underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Meanwhile, Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East, built over decades precisely for this purpose, refrained from joining the campaign. Hezbollah did not fire a single missile, Iraqi militias did not act, and even the Houthis, who had been firing missiles almost nightly before the campaign, launched only two ballistic missiles in the past 12 days.

Israel's vital infrastructure remained operational throughout the campaign. Electricity, energy, and water supplies continued without significant interruption, and the "blackout scenario" that was feared did not materialize. International legitimacy for Israeli actions was broad, enabling Israel to operate with operational freedom.

The campaign data indicates a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Iran, which invested tens of billions of dollars in building its military capabilities, lost in less than two weeks half of its missile arsenal, most of its air defense capabilities, and suffered severe damage to its nuclear program. Conversely, Israel demonstrated offensive capabilities at an unprecedented level but paid a heavy price in civilian lives and damage to the home front.

Graphics: Maakav