The relations between Israel and the United States are expected to significantly strengthen during Trump's second term. The new administration is expected to provide extensive support for Israel's strategic, security, and economic needs. Technological and security cooperation between the countries is expected to strengthen, but simultaneously potential gaps are emerging in several central issues, primarily policy towards Iran, the continuation of the war in Gaza, and the Palestinian issue.
One of the most significant challenges will be the need to balance Israel's relations with China and Russia against American administration demands. Trump is expected to apply significant pressure on Israel to limit its ties with rival powers, especially in technology and infrastructure.
The Iranian Arena: Growing Complexity
On the Iranian issue, Trump is expected to deepen the "maximum pressure" policy, including imposing additional sanctions and increased enforcement efforts. However, there is ambiguity regarding the final goal of this policy. While Trump talks about his desire to reach a new agreement with Iran, his position regarding the possibility of military action against it is unclear. Israel will need to carefully navigate between supporting the pressure policy and concerns about an agreement that won't meet its security requirements.
Trump has already demonstrated active involvement in attempting to end the war in Gaza, as evidenced by his efforts to advance the hostage deal. The administration is expected to apply significant pressure on Israel to end the fighting and allow rehabilitation of the Strip, especially as part of its efforts to promote broader regional normalization.
On the broader Palestinian issue, Trump is expected to continue his approach preferring economic solutions over a comprehensive political settlement. However, the administration may oppose Israeli annexation moves that could harm its ability to advance the vision of regional peace and expansion of the Abraham Accords.
The Economic Aspect
According to YNET reports and assessments by senior advisors in the Israel-US Chamber of Commerce, Trump's impact on the Israeli economy is expected to be significant. The new administration may implement dramatic changes in American economic policy that will directly affect trade relations between the countries, Israeli companies' activities in the US, and American companies' presence in Israel.
The Bipartisan Challenge
One of the central challenges for Israel will be preserving bipartisan support in Washington. Over-identification with Trump and the Republican Party could damage relations with Democrats and the American Jewish community. Israel will need to manage a complex relationship that maintains support from both sides of the American political divide.
In the international arena, Trump's unequivocal support for Israel could exacerbate the polarization between Israel's supporters and opponents. This may make it difficult to maintain broad support for Israel among European and Asian countries. However, the administration is expected to stand by Israel in international forums, including in dealing with legal proceedings at international courts in The Hague.
Strategic Recommendations
Israel should use the first months of the new administration to formulate strategic coordination on key issues. It is particularly important to focus on advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia, formulating joint policy towards Iran, and securing Israeli interests in Syria and Lebanon.
On the security front, Israel needs to prepare for renewal of the memorandum of understanding with the US regarding military aid, with negotiations expected to begin in 2025. This is an opportunity to strengthen security cooperation and consider the possibility of signing a defense treaty between the countries.
On the diplomatic front, Israel should work to preserve bipartisan support in the American arena while maintaining close ties with both major parties. Simultaneously, it should work to strengthen relations with American Jewry and avoid steps that would be interpreted as clear alignment with one side in internal American disputes.
In the international arena, Israel should work to improve its image through media campaigns emphasizing its security complexities. Meanwhile, it's important to maintain good relations with European and Asian countries while balancing against American support.
Trump's second term presents Israel with significant opportunities alongside complex challenges. Success depends on the ability to navigate between various interests and maintain the special relationship with the US, while understanding the changing geopolitical reality and evolving American interests.
The coming period will be critical in shaping future relations between the countries. Israel must act wisely and carefully, while exploiting opportunities offered by the new administration, but also while preserving its national interests and preparing for future challenges.
