The war in Ukraine stands on the brink of dramatic transformation with the approach of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's crucial visit to Berlin on Wednesday. The visit, during which Zelensky will meet with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is expected to lead to a dramatic German announcement that will alter the balance of power in the war.

After months of deliberation and diplomatic tension, the assessment is crystallizing in the West that Germany is preparing to supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles of the "Taurus" model—a step that President Zelensky has long advocated but which former Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to implement. The long-awaited decision comes following the clear escalation in Russian attacks and Moscow's refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

In a surprising statement at a media panel held ahead of the visit, Chancellor Merz clarified that Ukraine's main Western allies have removed restrictions on the range of Western weapons supplied to Kyiv. "There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine—not by Britain, France, or by us. There are also no restrictions from the United States. This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, for example by attacking military positions within Russia. Until recently it could not do this, and apart from very few exceptions, it did not do so", Merz explained.

This decision does not come out of the blue. Already on April 13, even before his appointment was approved by the Bundestag, Merz announced the possibility of transferring the missiles to Kyiv in coordination with European partners. The issue was extensively discussed during the visit of leaders from Germany, Britain, France, and Poland to Kyiv on May 9, and since then the new European strategy has been taking shape.

The shift in German position gains additional weight when examining the fundamental difference between current policy and that of the previous administration. Britain and France have already supplied Ukrainians with long-range cruise missiles of the "Storm Shadow" model, which have been used lethally against Russian targets, while Germany under Scholz insisted on not supplying German missiles to Ukraine.

If Berlin indeed supplies the "Taurus" missiles to the Ukrainian army, along with lifting the ban on attacking targets with them within Russian territory, this would be a significant development in the course of the war. The missile has a range of 500 kilometers, far beyond the British cruise missiles and US-made ATACMS, and it would give Ukraine the capability to strike strategic targets even in Moscow and other central Russian cities.

This European move reflects a clear trend of increasing military support for Ukraine, but it comes at a complex time of great uncertainty regarding continued US military support. Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, the American president has not approved new military aid packages for Ukraine and has not specified whether he intends to release the $3.85 billion already allocated by Congress to Kyiv.

The current situation shows that Ukrainians are being supplied with the last weapons packages promised by the Biden administration, but no new shipments are expected for the time being. It is unclear whether the White House will allow Ukraine to continue purchasing American weapons, and meanwhile this uncertainty itself encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin and instills confidence in him to continue attacks against Ukraine and intensify them.

Surprisingly, on June 26, 2025, President Trump presented an extremely sharp position against Putin through the Truth Social social network. In a message rare in its severity, Trump wrote: "I always had very good relations with Vladimir Putin from Russia, but something happened to him. He just went completely crazy! He is killing many people unnecessarily—and it's not just about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being fired at cities in Ukraine for no reason at all".

Trump continued and added: "I always said he wants all of Ukraine, not just part of it, and maybe this is proving true—but if he acts this way, it will lead to Russia's downfall!". This statement marks a significant change in the American president's tone toward the Russian leader and may affect the geopolitical dynamics of the conflict.

However, Trump also directed criticism toward the Ukrainian president: "President Zelensky is not helping his country when he speaks the way he speaks. Everything that comes out of his mouth creates problems. I don't like it, and it must stop". Despite the criticism, Trump clarified his position on the war itself: "This is a war that would never have started if I had been president. This is Zelensky's, Putin's, and Biden's war—not Trump's. I'm just trying to extinguish the big and ugly flames that were ignited due to serious incompetence and hatred".

These statements come as Russia continues to escalate its attacks against Ukraine, including strikes on civilian and innocent targets. The harsh reality on the ground is generating growing international pressure to respond forcefully against Russian policy, while simultaneously placing the European Union before the challenge of filling the void created by uncertainty regarding continued American support.

Zelensky's visit to Berlin thus comes at a critical moment, when Germany may lead a coordinated European move that could change the course of the war. The supply of long-range "Taurus" missiles, together with lifting restrictions on their use against targets in Russia, could create a new reality in the conflict and allow Ukraine to adopt a more offensive approach.

The new security reality in which Russia finds itself testifies to a dramatic transformation in the strategic balance of power. Ukrainian drone attacks, penetrating deep into Russian territory and reaching the heart of Moscow, create an unprecedented situation of uncertainty for the Kremlin leadership.

If already at this stage, when Ukraine operates mainly through drones, Russia exposes such noticeable vulnerability, what will happen when more sophisticated missiles reach the capital city? This question troubles not only the Russian population but also the close circles of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Reports from various sources indicate that Putin is considering leaving Moscow and moving to his fortified compound in the Valdai region—a step that would attest to recognition of the severity of the security situation.

The Russian capital is no longer a safe stronghold for the country's leadership.

Russia, which initiated the war as the attacking nation, now finds itself in a defensive position not only in the Ukrainian arena but also within its own borders. This situation could lead to the end of this destructive war.

Photo: AP

הפוסט Germany to Supply Ukraine with Missiles Capable of Reaching Moscow, Putin Under Pressure הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

It is evident that President Trump showed blatant disrespect toward his Ukrainian counterpart, expressing his positions in a harsh and disrespectful style, and ignoring historical commitments anchored in the Budapest Memorandum.

The Broken Promises of the Budapest Memorandum

At the heart of the current crisis is the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed in 1994. Under this agreement, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal – the third-largest in the world at that time – in favor of Russia. In return, both the United States and Russia committed to serve as guarantors of Ukraine's security and territorial integrity.

The memorandum represented a decisive moment in post-Cold War disarmament efforts. Ukraine, which inherited a significant nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union, agreed to transfer these weapons to Russia under significant diplomatic pressure from both Washington and Moscow. The monetary value of this nuclear transfer was estimated in billions of dollars, leaving Ukraine militarily vulnerable while strengthening Russia's nuclear capabilities.

However, the security guarantees promised to Ukraine began to crumble in 2014, when Russia, one of the guarantors of the agreement, annexed Crimea and supported separatist movements in eastern Ukraine in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The United States, the second security guarantor, responded with limited sanctions that proved insufficient to deter Russian aggression.

By 2025, the situation had deteriorated further, with the United States now appearing to abandon its commitment as a security guarantor, leaving Ukraine in an increasingly dangerous position. The evident collapse of the Budapest Memorandum's security guarantees raises disturbing questions about the credibility of international agreements and the implications of nuclear disarmament for smaller states caught between world powers.

Details of the Budapest Memorandum:

The Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994. In this document, Russia, the United States, and Britain committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine's relinquishment of its nuclear arsenal, which was the third-largest in the world after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The document was signed on December 5, 1994, by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and Britain, and contains the commitments mentioned earlier.

The commitments included:

Respecting Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.

Refraining from threatening or using force against Ukraine.

Refraining from economic pressure aimed at influencing Ukraine's politics.

Requesting immediate UN intervention in case of a nuclear weapon threat against Ukraine.

The document lacked binding enforcement mechanisms, and therefore strategic means were transferred in gradual stages; the last batch was transferred in early January 2014, and by February of the same year, Russia had already imposed its authority over southern regions of Ukraine and the Black Sea areas.

Because the document lacked binding enforcement mechanisms, which led to extensive controversy regarding its validity following Russia's takeover of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

Read the full text of the Budapest Memorandum — click here

Confrontation at the White House

The February 28 meeting between President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and President Zelensky was supposedly organized to discuss a minerals agreement between the two countries. Instead, it deteriorated into a sharp confrontation full of mutual accusations and stormy exchanges.

During the meeting, Trump accused Zelensky of "gambling on World War Three" and showing disrespect toward the United States. "You are playing with the lives of millions of people," Trump told Zelensky according to reports from the meeting. "The cards are not in your hands. What you're doing is disrespectful to the United States".

Following the turbulent meeting, Trump published an official statement on his X account: "We had a meaningful meeting at the White House. I identified that Zelensky is not ready for peace if America is involved, because he thinks our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don't want advantage, I want peace. He showed disrespect to the United States in the Oval Office. He can return when he's ready for peace".

Later, Trump told reporters that the meeting with Zelensky "didn't go well" and continued to attack the Ukrainian president: "He went too far. The US is not looking to play games, and we're not interested in a war that will take 10 years." Trump claimed that the US wants to achieve peace between Ukraine and Russia, while Zelensky "wants to fight fight fight".

When asked if he was considering stopping military aid to Ukraine, Trump responded vaguely: "It doesn't matter what I'm considering".

Zelensky's Response and Diplomatic Implications

A few hours after leaving or being removed from the American presidential residence (according to different versions), President Zelensky gave a comprehensive interview to the conservative news network "Fox News". In the interview, he expressed regret about the meeting's outcome, saying, "This is not good for both sides". When asked if he thought he should apologize to Trump, Zelensky replied: "We need to be very open and honest. I'm not sure we did something wrong".

Zelensky emphasized that he "respects Trump and the American people" and expressed belief in his ability to salvage the relationship with Trump. He acknowledged that his country lacks sufficient weapons and ammunition to repel the Russian army and admitted that victory in the war would be difficult without American support.

"We don't want to lose our wonderful friends in America", Zelensky emphasized. "We are ready for peace, but we also must be in a position of strength. Trump can be more on our side". Zelensky also denied Trump's claim that he has no intention of signing a ceasefire agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, a senior White House official told Reuters that President Trump is not interested in reviving the precious minerals deal with Ukraine. The source claimed that the Ukrainian delegation began "begging" for the deal to be signed immediately after Zelensky was expelled from the White House.

Additionally, a senior American official told CNN that relations between Zelensky and Trump "appear beyond repair" and raised the possibility that the Ukrainian president might resign. The source described the situation as "disastrous" and added: "It's unclear how mutual relations will progress as long as Zelensky is in power, unless he finds a way to fix the situation".

International Reactions and Russian Exploitation

Following the public confrontation, several European countries quickly sided with Zelensky, including France, Poland, Norway, and Germany.

Russia, for its part, exploited Zelensky's expulsion to mock and verbally attack him. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson cynically remarked after the confrontation: "The fact that Trump and Vance didn't hit Zelensky is a miracle of restraint". Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as the head of the Russian Security Council, expressed himself in particularly provocative terms: "For the first time, Trump told the cocaine clown the truth to his face. The regime in Kyiv is gambling on World War Three. The ungrateful pig received a strong slap by hand from the owners of the pigsty. This is important, but not enough. Military support for the Nazi machine must be stopped".

Worsening Military Situation

In the midst of this diplomatic crisis, Russia continues to exploit the situation militarily. On the night following the White House incident, a Ukrainian hospital in Kharkiv in the eastern part of the country, Ukraine's second-largest city, was hit by a Russian drone attack. A child was injured in the attack on the hospital, and the mayor reported that additional targets were hit.

Historical Context: The Budapest Memorandum and Its Implications

The current crisis cannot be fully understood without examining the historical context of the Budapest Memorandum. The memorandum, signed in 1994, was a cornerstone in the security architecture and nuclear non-proliferation efforts after the Cold War. Ukraine's decision to give up its nuclear weapons was based on solid security guarantees from both the United States and Russia.

However, these guarantees began to collapse in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea shortly after receiving nuclear weapons from Ukraine. Russia also supported separatist movements in eastern Ukraine in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The United States, as the second security guarantor, responded with limited sanctions that proved insufficient to deter continued Russian aggression.

The clear abandonment of these security commitments by both guarantors – Russia through direct aggression and the United States through diplomatic withdrawal – raises fundamental questions about the sustainability of international security agreements and the wisdom of nuclear disarmament for countries in vulnerable geopolitical positions.

The Human Cost

Amid diplomatic tensions and political maneuvering, the ongoing human tragedy in Ukraine is sometimes forgotten. The conflict has led to the destruction of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives since 2014, with civilian infrastructure under routine attack. The recent attack on a hospital in Kharkiv is just the latest example of the war's impact on civilian populations.

As tensions between the United States and Ukraine continue to escalate, and as Russia exploits these disagreements, the future remains highly uncertain. Ukraine finds itself in an increasingly dangerous position – abandoned by one security guarantor and under attack from the other, with its president now apparently considered persona non grata in the White House.

The collapse of the Budapest Memorandum's security guarantees raises troubling questions about international agreements and the implications of nuclear disarmament. As President Zelensky acknowledged in his Fox News interview, the path to victory becomes significantly more challenging without continued American support.

For now, Ukraine continues to confront Russian aggression while navigating an increasingly complex diplomatic landscape. The harsh reality is that the Budapest Memorandum, once considered a victory of post-Cold War cooperation, now stands as a cautionary tale about the fragility of international security guarantees when geopolitical interests change.

In the shadow of this diplomatic crisis, ordinary Ukrainians continue to endure the daily reality of a conflict now entering its eleventh year, with no clear end in sight.

Photo: DW

הפוסט Superpower Betrayal: US Tramples Agreements, Ukraine Bleeds הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.