U.S. President Donald Trump announced last night via his social media platform that a ceasefire had been achieved between Israel and Iran, promising an end to what he called the "12-day war". The announcement surprised the world as the Israeli Air Force continues to conduct extensive strikes in Tehran and across Iran, while Iran presents a contradictory position – on one hand denying a formal agreement and on the other signaling its intention to stop responses if Israel halts its attacks.

In a dramatic tweet published at night, Trump wrote: "I am happy to congratulate the courage and wisdom to end the '12-day war.'" According to him, a graduated framework was achieved whereby, if everything "goes well", an official declaration ending the war with Iran is expected to be received on Wednesday around 7:00 AM. Trump added: "This will last forever. A wonderful day for the world".

Following the announcement, it emerged that behind the scenes a complex diplomatic process had been conducted through Qatar's mediation. An official Reuters source revealed that Trump spoke with the Emir of Qatar and told him that Israel had agreed to the proposal, while Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in turn secured Iran's agreement. White House sources confirmed that Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the proposal in a conversation with Trump, with the central condition being the cessation of attacks by Iran.

The official Iranian response came in the early morning hours from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who explicitly denied the existence of a formal agreement. "As of now, there is no agreement, ceasefire, or halt to military operations", Araghchi wrote on social media. However, in the continuation of his statement he left a significant opening: "If the Israeli regime stops its aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4:00 Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response". Araghchi added that "the final decision on stopping our operations will be made later." It should be noted that the tweet was published after 4:00 in Iran, raising questions about the practical meaning of the ultimatum.

In support of the president's announcement, a senior Iranian official confirmed in a conversation with foreign media that Tehran had indeed agreed to the proposal, though he did not detail its exact conditions. The apparent contradiction between the minister's and the official's statements indicates internal disagreements in Iran's decision-making mechanism.

Parallel to the diplomatic announcements, the military reality continues to be turbulent. The Israeli Air Force conducted "heavy strikes" at noon on dozens of targets across Iran, with more than 50 fighter jets participating in the operation. The main focus was the extensive attack on Tehran, which included hitting Revolutionary Guard headquarters and strategic infrastructure. Among the prominent targets was also the entrance to the notorious "Evin" prison, where Iranian regime opponents are held.

An IDF spokesperson detailed that the wave of attacks targeted missile production sites, radars, and missile storage infrastructure in the Tehran area. The strikes are being carried out against the backdrop of Israeli preparations for possible barrages, with security forces at maximum alert level.

In Jerusalem, the narrow security cabinet convened in a bunker for an emergency discussion. Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed ministers not to comment on the matter until discussions were completed. Sources in the Prime Minister's Office refrained from any official reference to Trump's announcement, emphasizing that Israel would continue to act according to its security considerations.

In Washington, the American Vice President defined the "12-day war" as "an important reset for the entire region", emphasizing the strategic importance of the ceasefire agreement. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee welcomed the announcement in an emotional post, writing: "It's 3:00 AM in Israel, and I woke up to a phone call instead of a ballistic missile. President Trump announced wonderful news to the world about a ceasefire that will soon take effect – these 12 days felt like 12 years. The President didn't just 'pray for the peace of Jerusalem,' he delivered it".

Despite the diplomatic announcements, the civilian reality in Israel remained unchanged. The Home Front Command clarified that there was no change in guidelines for the public, and that people should continue to follow instructions given through official channels. Following the attacks, the IDF decided to tighten defense policy and move all areas of the country from partial and limited activity level to essential activity level at least until evening. The prohibition includes educational activities, gatherings, and conducting activities in workplaces, except for vital economy.

The tension between diplomatic announcements and military reality continues to cast a shadow over the implementation of the ceasefire. While Trump promises "a wonderful day for the world", Israeli attacks continue and Iran maintains deliberate ambiguity regarding its future response. The coming hours are expected to determine whether an agreement is indeed crystallizing that will bring an end to tensions, or whether this is a temporary respite in what could become a longer war.

Photo: AP

הפוסט Trump: Netanyahu and Iran Agreed to Ceasefire – Attacks Continue הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

הפוסט Russia Condemns Israel and Pushes for UN Session הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

Knesset Member Tali Gottlieb (Likud) has emphatically declared that in her opinion, the Israeli government is obligated to attack nuclear facilities in Iran, emphasizing that it is not a question of "if" but only of "when".

"Attacking Iran's nuclear facilities is an obligation! This government does not have the privilege of not completing this crucial mission for Israel's security", Gottlieb stated in a published declaration.

Gottlieb addressed the growing tension between Israel and Iran following recent exchanges of blows between the countries. According to her, the negotiations and "talks" that Iran is conducting with the international community are nothing but a tactic to gain time: "Iran is very patient and is mocking the entire world. 'Talks' are just an excuse to buy time for Iran's recovery and rehabilitation from the damage of Israel's latest attack".

MK Gottlieb added that she does not underestimate the Iranian threat, and emphasized that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is well aware of the danger. "What I know, Prime Minister Netanyahu also knows. Patience is not a dirty word alongside vigilance and cunning when facing our enemies", she said.

Knesset Member Tali Gottlieb's emphatic statements come at a critical turning point in Israel-Iran relations, as direct military confrontations between the two countries have occurred in recent weeks, following a prolonged period of covert conflict which was conducted primarily through proxy forces and affiliated organizations.

An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could ignite significant regional escalation, but Gottlieb is resolute in her position that Israel cannot afford to refrain from action. "Attacking Iran's nuclear facilities is not a question of yes or no but only a question of timing", she emphasized.

While Gottlieb's words are expected to draw criticism among the left wing in Israel and in the international community, they reflect a position that is gaining increasing support among right-wing circles in Israel, who believe that the emerging nuclear agreement will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and that only military action can prevent this scenario.

Recently, troubling reports have been published about the acceleration of uranium enrichment processes in Iran to particularly high levels, a development that raises deep anxiety among decision-makers in Jerusalem and Western capitals. International nuclear experts warn that the Islamic Republic is currently at an unprecedented proximity to the capability of producing nuclear weapons, should such a strategic decision be made in Tehran.

The forceful rhetoric expressed by Knesset Member Gottlieb joins a growing chorus of sharp statements from senior ranks in Israel's political and security establishment regarding the intensifying Iranian threat. Her words reflect the emerging consensus that, in the face of the developing Iranian nuclear threat, Israel must maintain a military response as a tangible and operational alternative, and not be satisfied with deterrent declarations alone.

Photo: Knesset website, in accordance with Section 27a of the Copyright Law

הפוסט Tali Gottlieb: We Must Attack Iran's Nuclear Facilities הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

Trump has significantly escalated his threats in recent days, promising that if a new nuclear agreement isn't reached, Iran will experience bombings "like it has never seen before". Tehran responded to the letter Trump sent to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by refusing direct negotiations with the U.S. as long as sanctions remain in place, but expressed willingness for indirect talks through a third-party mediator. According to a report yesterday on Sky News Arabic, Oman will serve as that mediator.

Trump himself declared last night that he prefers direct talks: "I think it goes faster, and you understand the other side much better than using intermediaries". Without explaining his statement, he claimed he "knows" that Iran does want direct negotiations, despite its public declarations to the contrary.

Against this backdrop, The Wall Street Journal reported at noon that the Trump administration intends to pressure Iran into direct talks. A senior American official told the newspaper that Washington wants to avoid indirect negotiations through "intermediaries on different floors of the same hotel passing messages back and forth". Such negotiations, the source said, could drag on for months or even years.

In the background, Iran continues to enrich uranium to 60% purity, very close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons. There are also concerns that Iran is secretly working on shortening the path to developing other components of an operational nuclear warhead should it decide to break out toward a bomb. According to reports, Trump set a two-month deadline in his letter to Khamenei, but it remains unclear when exactly the countdown begins from his perspective: from the moment the letter was sent, or from the start of negotiations.

Either way, according to today's report, the U.S. goal in future negotiations with Iran is quite ambitious: The senior official told The Wall Street Journal that the objective is complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. This contrasts with the 2015 agreement that Trump withdrew from three years later, which only imposed restrictions – albeit significant but many of them temporary rather than permanent – on Iran's ability to enrich uranium. Iran has been violating those restrictions since the U.S. withdrawal from the collapsed deal.

Trump's National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has already declared that the administration's goal is to dismantle all aspects of Iran's nuclear program – uranium enrichment, accumulation of strategic ballistic missiles, and the ability to develop nuclear weapons. These are dramatic demands that will very likely make future negotiations extremely complicated, if not impossible. Iran consistently insists on its right to enrich uranium, ostensibly for civilian purposes, and also opposes any agreement that would limit its missile program. If Iran maintains these red lines, Trump may need to decide between carrying out his threats or "blinking" in the face of Tehran.

Meanwhile, he is backing up these threats with significant force reinforcement. The U.S. has not officially confirmed reports of the B-2 bombers being transferred to Diego Garcia, which is controlled by Britain and leased by the U.S., but has announced the strengthening of its air and naval forces in the region. Satellite images from Sunday initially showed four B-2 bombers parked at the island base, and in new images from Wednesday, their number had increased to six.

100 Meters Underground: Is the "Mother of All Bunker Busters" Still Effective?

This represents a significant show of force by the U.S., which has a total of only 19 bombers of this strategic type, developed in the 1990s at an astronomical cost of $1.1 billion per aircraft (with inflation since then, in today's terms that's about $2 billion per aircraft). The B-2 "Spirit" is a heavy bomber with stealth capabilities, and one of the goals in its development was to expand America's nuclear deterrence – since it can penetrate deep into enemy territory without being detected by radar systems.

The bombers, capable of carrying payloads of up to 18 tons and flying without refueling for distances up to 11,000 kilometers, are also used for conventional purposes, and the U.S. already employed them last year in strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. However, they are used sparingly, often only to send messages to rivals and enemies. Their transfer to an area near Iran constitutes a clear message, as they are currently the only aircraft in the U.S. military designed to carry the massive MOP bomb (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), also known by the code name GBU-57 – a 12.3-ton bomb developed with one central purpose: the ability to strike Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

The development of this bomb began in the first decade of the 2000s, and it is the most powerful non-nuclear "bunker buster," estimated by the U.S. Air Force to be capable of penetrating to depths of about 60 meters. It contains "only" about 2.4 tons of explosives, with most of the weight coming from its armored casing – allowing it to penetrate deep into the ground and "dig" through rocks, soil, and reinforced concrete. The GBU-57 is even heavier than the MOAB, the "Mother of All Bombs", which weighs about 10 tons, but since the latter is not designed to penetrate the ground, it contains a larger amount of explosives.

It has been previously reported that the GBU-57, which has never been used operationally, was developed specifically to enable strikes against the nuclear facility in Fordow, which according to reports was dug into a mountainside at a depth of about 80 to 90 meters underground. In 2022, it was revealed that Iran is building a new underground facility in Natanz at the same depth or possibly even deeper, between 80 to 100 meters. Reports about the excavation of that site raised questions about the effectiveness of using the bunker buster against it, but according to an AP report from about two years ago, American officials discussed dropping two such bombs in succession to ensure the destruction of the site.

The Expulsion from the Strategic Island, and Tehran's Threats: "We Can Reach Any Base"

The six bombers sent to Diego Garcia constitute one-third of the U.S. military's B-2 fleet, and military aviation expert Peter Layton estimated in a conversation with CNN that this essentially represents all the available bombers of this type. "I assume there are one or two at the home base for training and a few more standing by in case of need for nuclear deterrence. The others are in maintenance", said Layton, a former fighter pilot in the Australian Air Force. "Six is a significant number", he noted, emphasizing that if these bombers were intended solely for strikes against underground facilities of the Houthis – as part of the extensive operation the U.S. is currently conducting against Iran's proxies in Yemen – two or three would have sufficed. According to him, transferring six such bombers to the region already constitutes a "dramatic effort", with the message clearly directed at Iran itself.

Diego Garcia Island is located about 3,900 kilometers from Iran's southern shores, but the B-2 has a flight range of 11,000 kilometers, and satellite images distributed this week also showed KC-135 refueling aircraft at Diego Garcia. Tehran has clearly understood the message, and in recent days more and more threats against the base have been heard from Iran. According to the British Telegraph, there are now calls there for a preemptive strike against the base. "Discussions about the island have intensified since the Americans stationed bombers there. The response to Trump's threats should come in action – not words. Every base in the region is within range of our missiles", a senior Iranian official told the newspaper.

In another Telegraph report, an Iranian source promised that any American attack on his country would be met with an attack against the American-British base in Diego Garcia. "There will be no distinction between British forces or American forces if Iran is attacked, from any base in the region or within range of its missiles", the source said. Iranian media has also threatened to strike the island with ballistic missiles and Shahed 136-B suicide drones, which allegedly have a range of 4,000 kilometers, in response to any "hostile action" by the U.S.

Diego Garcia is indeed a tiny island – only 30 square kilometers – but it is the largest among the 60 islands that make up the Chagos Archipelago in the central Indian Ocean. Since the 1970s, the island has hosted a strategic air base that the U.S. leases from Britain, with the current agreement between them continuing at least until 2036. About 2,500 crew members live at the base, mostly Americans with only a minority of Britons, and it has strategic importance for U.S. operations in the region. It greatly assisted the U.S. in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it has been reported that the CIA also operated "black sites" there – the secret, unofficial facilities that the American intelligence agency established outside U.S. borders where terrorism suspects were tortured.

Right now, the fate of Diego Garcia and the other Chagos Islands is at the center of negotiations between the British government and the government of Mauritius, an island nation in the Indian Ocean that claims sovereignty over them. Mauritius, which was also a British colony in the past, has been demanding ownership of the islands that were separated from it by London in 1965. About 2,000 original inhabitants of the islands, descendants of slaves from Africa who were brought there by the French in the late 18th century to establish a coconut processing factory, were expelled by the British to allow the U.S. to establish the strategic base in Diego Garcia.

The UN Decision that Britain Violated, and Israeli Support

Britain did purchase the islands from Mauritius for a paltry sum of 3 million pounds, but Mauritius argues that it was effectively forced to give up sovereignty over them in exchange for receiving its independence in 1968. Many of the displaced people and their children now live in Mauritius, having waged a years-long struggle to return to the Chagos Islands. In 2019, Britain suffered a blow in its attempt to maintain control over them: the International Court of Justice in The Hague ruled that the separation of the islands from Mauritius was illegal.

Following that decision, in the same year, 116 countries voted in favor of a non-binding resolution introduced in the UN General Assembly by African nations, stating that Britain should "withdraw its colonial administration" from the Chagos Islands within six months. Only six countries, including Britain, the U.S., and Israel, voted against. The Israeli delegation explained its vote by saying that the matter should be resolved between Britain and Mauritius. Britain did not meet the non-binding deadline set for returning control of the islands, but in recent years has been negotiating the terms of their return.

In October last year, the Labour government led by Keir Starmer announced an agreement in principle between the parties, under which Britain would transfer control of the islands to Mauritius and lease Diego Garcia for a period of at least 99 years – with the possibility of an extension for an additional 40 years – to allow the continued operation of the base on the island. Following Trump's victory in the U.S. elections, the signing of the agreement was delayed, and several senior officials in Washington criticized it harshly. Marco Rubio, then a senator and now Trump's Secretary of State, said last year that the emerging agreement posed a "serious threat" to U.S. national security.

However, Trump himself recently signaled that he would accept the agreement, and when he met with Starmer in February, he said: "They're talking about a very long-term lease, a very strong lease, for 140 years actually. That's a long time." This week, Starmer's spokesman updated that the agreement is in its final stages before being submitted for approval to the London Parliament.

But now criticism is being heard in the United Kingdom about the agreement, under which London will essentially have to pay to lease an island where a predominantly American base operates. Starmer's government has not disclosed how much it will pay under the agreement, but according to reports in the British press, the amount in question is 90 million pounds ($117 million) per year. "It's like transferring your house to someone else, and then paying to rent it", said Priti Patel of the Conservative Party, who serves as Foreign Secretary in the opposition's "shadow government". "This deal is simply madness".

The criticism intensified this week following the tariffs Trump imposed on all countries of the world, with Britain receiving the minimum rate of 10%. "We aren't using the island ourselves, so isn't it reasonable to demand that the rent be paid in full by those who are using it?". British commentator Paul Nuki wrote in a column. "And if the tenant continues to be the U.S., isn't it reasonable to demand that its president treat us fairly in trade, and completely remove the ridiculous tariffs on British goods?".

הפוסט Bomber Island: Trump's Secret Weapon Against Iran הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

From a moral standpoint, Israel cannot attack Iran as long as the hostages have not been released from captivity in Gaza. The current IDF activity in the Strip is merely the prelude to the larger campaign that is forming against the Iranian threat.

There is a well-known saying that every fighter in the IDF infantry brigades knows: "What doesn't work with force works with more force". The operation in Gaza is essentially the trailer for the major operation that Israel is preparing for. The current activity of divisions 143, 36, and 252 is intended to increase pressure on Gaza residents, who will in turn increase pressure on Hamas to agree to the American proposal – the release of 11 living hostages and 16 deceased hostages.

The military activity in Gaza is now accompanied by heavy fire from the air, from the navy, and from maneuvering forces. The IDF is operating aggressively with the understanding that there are no living or dead hostages in the areas where it operates. The heavy force being applied is also meant to clarify to Hamas what will happen when the IDF moves to a much more intensified phase.

Iranian President Pezeshkian threatened that Iran is in a state of "total war with the enemy (Israel)" and called for focusing on preparations for this instead of internal accusations. He noted that the enemy is tightening the siege and sanctions, but Iran has plans to deal with this situation.

The question of striking Iran is just around the corner. This is the existential issue that threatens the state of Israel. The time window for striking Iran is limited, and it's unclear if the Americans will carry out the move themselves. This is Israel's top priority, but if the US does not act and leaves the arena to the IDF, Israel will need significant American backing. Not just in armaments and resources, but in an explicit clarification from the American government that it is providing support to Israel through aircraft carriers, squadrons at airfields in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf.

A strike on Iran could lead to a military operation that would last many weeks and even several months. This situation requires Israel to first close the issue of the hostages. Israel cannot, morally, publicly, and to some extent militarily, initiate an action against Iran when the issue of hostages in Gaza is still open.

In the coming days, pressure on Hamas in Gaza is expected to intensify: more air force bombings, massive navy strikes along the entire Gaza coastline, and ground activity accompanied by heavy fire in various areas of the Strip. Now the military saying "what doesn't work with force works with more force" is being put to the test in the reality of Gaza.

At the same time, international voices are heard in the background. Russia responded to US President Donald Trump's threats with a stern statement: "An attack on Iran is illegal, it will have devastating consequences". Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declared that "the use of military force against Iran would be illegal and unacceptable", following Trump's threats to attack the country if it does not sign a nuclear agreement. "Bombing nuclear facilities would have catastrophic consequences for the entire world", Zakharova added.

The complex security reality places Israel before a critical dilemma: on one hand, the escalating Iranian nuclear threat that demands an urgent response, and on the other hand – the moral commitment to return the hostages. The intensive fighting in Gaza these days is essentially an indicator of the military power that Israel is prepared to employ, and an attempt to resolve the hostage issue as quickly as possible in order to focus on dealing with the larger strategic threat.

As developments indicate, IDF activity in Gaza these days constitutes only the prelude to a much broader and more significant campaign. As time progresses, Israel increases the pressure in Gaza with the aim of achieving the release of hostages as soon as possible, and clearing the way for a comprehensive response to the Iranian threat – the threat that is now defined as more real, serious, frightening, and dangerous than ever before.

Photo: Israel Aerospace Industries, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Facebook page, and AP News Agency

הפוסט Iran: The Most Severe Existential Threat Ever הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.

"Nowruz is approaching! I wish the people of Iran a year full of prosperity, security, friendship, hope, faith, and freedom. It's time for Iran's resources to be returned to its people, and for true freedom to replace oppression. Happy Nowruz!". Netanyahu wrote in a post published in Arabic and translated into Hebrew by the "Monitoring" system.

In the recorded video dedicated to the event, Netanyahu expanded his greeting: "Spring is approaching, and so is the new Persian year. I would like to wish the Iranian people and Persians around the world a happy Nowruz. I wish you health, happiness, prosperity, and above all – I wish you freedom".

The Prime Minister's special reference to the central Iranian holiday, which marks the beginning of spring, comes against the backdrop of ongoing tension between Israel and Iran. But instead of focusing on the Iranian government, Netanyahu chose to convey a direct message to Iranian citizens, clearly separating the Iranian people from the regime ruling the country.

"I hope this Nowruz will symbolize a new beginning – a new beginning that will overcome all the obstacles and barriers that have stood in your way for too long", said Netanyahu, in a clear allusion to the ongoing oppression experienced by Iranian citizens under the Islamic regime. "May it be a year of servet – prosperity. A year in which the residents of Iran can finally enjoy the rich natural resources of their country, resources that have been denied to them for years by an oppressive regime".

In his remarks, Netanyahu emphasized the aspiration for the Iranian rial to "regain its true value", a reference to the difficult economic situation in the country, which has been severely affected by international sanctions and poor economic management. He continued with wishes for a year of "amniat – security. Spiritual, economic, and physical security," and "dousti – friendship. Friendship with those who work for you, including my country, Israel".

These wishes express a revolutionary message in the landscape of relations between the countries, as Netanyahu extends a hand to the Iranian people and presents Israel as a potential friend of the people, in stark contrast to the official Iranian policy that strongly opposes the existence of the state of Israel.

The central message in Netanyahu's words focused on the values of freedom and hope: "A year of omid – hope. Hope and optimism that will lead to freedom. A year of iman – faith. Faith that it's possible to live a better life. A year of azadi – freedom. Real freedom. Freedom from oppression, freedom from want, freedom to live, freedom to choose".

Netanyahu's address is part of a long-standing policy seeking to create a clear distinction between the Iranian people, with their rich culture and magnificent historical heritage, and the Islamic regime that has held power since the revolution in 1979. Netanyahu's Nowruz greeting is an attempt to leverage the holiday – a holiday that symbolizes renewal and a new beginning – as a symbol of the possibility of profound political change in Iran.

At the current timing, as Iran continues to pose a strategic threat to Israel through the development of nuclear capabilities and the operation of proxy organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas, there is special significance to the message conveyed by the Prime Minister. Instead of focusing on military threats or bellicose declarations, Netanyahu chose to focus on universal values of freedom, prosperity, and human rights – values that are at the heart of Israeli identity.

Netanyahu's use of the Persian language and Iranian cultural concepts emphasizes the respect he holds for ancient Persian culture and its heritage. He even chose to use specific Persian words such as "servet" (prosperity), "amniat" (security), "dousti" (friendship), "omid" (hope), "iman" (faith), and "azadi" (freedom), thereby creating a deeper cultural connection with his target audience.

Netanyahu's Nowruz greeting reflects a broader strategic perception – an understanding that real political change in Iran can only come from within the Iranian people themselves. In doing so, the Prime Minister conveys a message of support for the freedom aspirations of the Iranian people and positions Israel as a supporter of democratic and liberal values.

This address by Netanyahu is a direct continuation of the long-term policy of the Israeli government, which seeks to strengthen the connection with the Iranian people while bypassing the hostile regime. The Persian New Year greeting is a well-calculated diplomatic step, combining cultural tradition with a strong political message, and expressing hope for a better future for relations between the peoples.

Photo from Benjamin Netanyahu's X network

نوروز نزدیک است!

برای مردم ایران سالی پر از ثروت، امنیت، دوستی، امید، ایمان و آزادی آرزو دارم.

زمان آن رسیده که منابع ایران به مردمش بازگردد و آزادی واقعی جایگزین سرکوب شود.

نوروزتان پیروز! pic.twitter.com/5WyTD2VReb

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) March 20, 2025

הפוסט Netanyahu Conquers Iran with Words Alone הופיע לראשונה ב-מעקב.